GLP-1s, Obesity, and the Employer Cost Curve: Trusting the Data, Verifying the Strategy
GLP-1s, Obesity, and the Employer Cost Curve: Trusting the Data, Verifying the Strategy
A recent report from a large consulting firm has raised eyebrows across the benefits world. The headline: GLP-1 medications may finally be bending the healthcare cost curve. For employers grappling with rising claims tied to obesity, diabetes, and cardiovascular risk, it sounds like a breakthrough. But is it really?
While the early promise of medications like Ozempic, Wegovy, and Zepbound is undeniable, this is the first published claim we've seen that ties their use directly to reduced employer healthcare costs. As professionals tasked with balancing innovation and fiscal discipline, we think it's worth taking a closer look.
What the Report Says
The report highlights a workforce-level analysis of GLP-1 adoption, suggesting improved health outcomes and early signs of cost mitigation. Notably, it emphasizes a holistic care model — integrating medication with behavioral and clinical support — as the optimal path forward. With executive-level backing, the report positions GLP-1s as a pillar in future benefit design.
The optimism is notable. But for those in the trenches of claims data, the reaction is more cautious.
What We're Hearing From the Field
One data analytics vendor we spoke with put it bluntly: “We’re not seeing a reduction in costs related to obesity.” In their view, employers achieving meaningful savings are doing so not by leaning into high-cost drug therapies, but by purchasing healthcare differently — through direct primary care, fiduciary PBMs, and transparent contracting strategies. These employers are stepping away from legacy BUCA discounts and the Big 3 PBMs. It’s a small but growing segment of the market, they note — perhaps 5% of employers today.
Their comment underscores the core issue: Structural cost problems require structural solutions.
The GLP-1 Tradeoff: Hope Meets Reality
GLP-1s clearly have a role in the benefits landscape — particularly for individuals with obesity and Type 2 diabetes. But they are not without complications:
- Cost Sustainability: Monthly costs often exceed $1,000 per member. If used long-term, this creates budget strain — especially if weight returns when the medication stops.
- Clinical Complexity: Not all patients respond equally. Risks include muscle loss, gastrointestinal side effects, and uncertain long-term impact.
- Behavioral Risk: When positioned as a quick fix, these drugs can overshadow the role of lifestyle change, nutrition, and whole-person health strategies.
In other words, the medical promise is real — but so are the risks of over-reliance.
Strategic Guidance for Benefits Leaders
For benefits leaders navigating this trend, a few guiding principles may help:
- Innovation Must Fit the Strategy: GLP-1s should complement — not replace — a broader strategy for chronic condition management.
- Watch the ROI Window: If you adopt these medications, build in checkpoints. If health outcomes or costs aren’t improving in 12–24 months, it’s time to reassess.
- Look Beyond the Drug: Structural models like DPC, fiduciary PBMs, and direct contracting may deliver more durable cost containment.
Final Thought
We believe curiosity and discipline are the cornerstones of effective benefits leadership. GLP-1s deserve a place in the conversation — but not a blank check. This moment, if anything, reminds us that bending the cost curve requires both bold innovation and long-term structural thinking.
Stay tuned: as more data rolls in — including from employer analytics teams — we’ll be revisiting this topic.
Footnote: Aon report (April 30, 2025): https://aon.mediaroom.com/2025-04-30-Aon-Unveils-First-Workforce-Focused-Analysis-on-GLP-1s-Medications-and-Holistic-Support-Can-Transform-Workforce-Health-and-Bend-the-Cost-Curve
